Outlook 2015 in the second half, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound:
1) supply side: with the expected return rate fell significantly, the global oil and gas industry, especially the United States, the rapid decline in capital inflows of the United States, the supply of excess supply is expected to gradually disappear;
2) the demand side: low oil prices stimulate demand for crude oil consumption, the United States and Asia is the highlight of the, as long as the black swan event does not occur, the global economy is expected to further warming.
3) monetary factors: the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to continue to weaken, even though interest rates to stimulate the dollar index again strong, the suppression of oil prices is not as good as before.
Oil and private enterprises in the oil and gas industry in China, which is the lowest level of oil and gas industry, is still in the monopoly of three barrels of oil and oil. Since the second half of 2014, the collapse of oil prices for private enterprises to carry out overseas oil block acquisition provides an excellent historical opportunity, dense oil development in the United States, oil sands and natural gas resource rich Canada and China's conventional oil and gas resource rich countries, such as Kazakhstan, China's private enterprises overseas acquisition of the main battlefield.
The company is expected to benefit from the oil reform: China's oil and gas industry is currently showing the characteristics of an oligopoly + policy control, the future market reform is an inevitable trend. Sinopec is undoubtedly the leading enterprise in the field of oil and gas fields in recent years, Fu Chengyu, the implementation of the reform of professional restructuring + Split listing of ideas for the future reform of great significance. We expect the first draft of the overall plan for oil and gas reform may be available in the 15Q3, then the market for another big oil in the oil is expected to gradually promote the reform is expected to rapidly warming.
Higher margin of safety under the traditional blue chip style conversion: market after the collapse of the market as a whole style has converted, petrochemical planes as low Pb index heavyweights, relative to income significantly. Benefit from a rebound in oil prices, the downstream petrochemical petrochemical hutch business and profitability increased dramatically.
Investment strategy: private enterprises involved in oil recommended intercontinental oil and gas (600759, stock it), oil reform benefit stocks recommended low market capitalization of Daqing Huake (000985, stock it) (July 16, market value for 21 billion yuan) and diesel oil economy (000617, stock it) (30 billion yuan), high margin of safety of traditional blue chip recommended Petrochemical planes and Shanghai Petrochemical (600688, stock it).